NFL Divisional Playoff Preview

Good morning. I didn’t do a preview for last week‘s Wild Card Weekend, but all the games were good with a few surprises. Here’s a quick recap of all six games.

I did not expect Houston to beat the Chargers they way they did. Justin Herbert was that bad in defeat and it ruined a good game by Ladd McConkey.

Pittsburgh’s loss was well deserved and the perfect ending to a season that saw the Steelers finish with five straight losses. Derrick Henry is a beast and Buffalo will have its hands full Sunday.

Even in defeat, Denver had a great season and Bo Nix had a great rookie year. Philly can win around Jalen Hurts but it helped that Jordan Love looked bad. Washington’s great season continued with a last season field goal. They’ll have their hands full in Detroit Saturday though.

Minnesota looked lost on Monday night. Two decisive losses at the end ruined a great season for the Vikings. Now, the question going into the offseason is, what to do with Sam Darnold and do they start JJ McCarthy in 2025?

Now here’s my take on this weekend’s divisional playoff action.

Houston at Kansas City, 4:30pm, ABC/ESPN, Saturday

During the summer, this was my pick for the AFC Championship game. After a great rookie year, CJ Stroud regressed in 2024 and injuries to top receivers didn’t help either. The defense kept them in most games and the Texans played good when it counted. While I doubt that Patrick Mahomes will throw four picks and have a subpar performance, I don’t see Houston repeating its performance that it did in the wild card matchup vs. the Chargers. The Chiefs played a lot of close games and had a few blowout wins (Christmas Day at Pittsburgh being one of them). The pressure is on both teams here; Kansas City is trying to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, and Houston is trying to advance to its first AFC Championship game. I think the streak that continues will be that of the Houston Texans as KC advances to its seventh straight conference title game.

Washington at Detroit, 8:00pm, FOX, Saturday

The comeback team of the year saw their season continue on a last second field goal as Washington ended its playoff drought. Winning their first postseason game since 2005 and having their best season since 1991, the Commanders will be facing a bigger challenge Saturday night in Detroit. I’d love to see Washington’s season continue with an upset win in the Motor City. They beat an average Bucs team Sunday night that didn’t even play well in their regular season finale against New Orleans. Jayden Daniels will make his case for Offensive Rookie of the Year along with Bo Nix. Does Detroit take Washington for granted and lose this game? I have to go with the points and pick Detroit.

L.A. Rams at Philadelphia, 3:00pm, NBC, Sunday

Other than my hometown Pittsburgh Steelers, the Philadelphia Eagles are my other favorite team. They’ll take the field against the Los Angeles Rams, who made quick work of the Vikings on Monday Night in the Wild Card finale. If the Eagles can muster another average performance from Jalen Hurts and get great numbers from Saquon Barkley, they should dispose of the Rams. The weather will be in their favor with game time temperatures in the 30s and snow expected as the afternoon rolls on. Remember the last time these two met? The Rams don’t want a repeat performance of that when Saquon ran for 255 yards and Eagles cruised to their seventh straight victory. They must contain #26 if they want to win this game. I look for Philly to take this one at home. Cheesesteaks for everyone.

Baltimore at Buffalo, 6:30pm ET, CBS

I’ll be tuned into the Eagles game for sure on Sunday, but this game right here might just be the best out of the four. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen come in as the top two in the MVP race. Both came off great regular seasons. Derrick Henry has been a great addition to the Ravens, finishing second to Saquon Barkley in yards. Baltimore contained the Bills in September in the worst loss of the year for Buffalo. The pressure is on for these two MVP candidates as Josh Allen is trying to lead the Bills to the Super Bowl, but has dealt with obstacles including the Chiefs. Lamar Jackson’s playoff record is subpar and a Super Bowl win would help exorcise those playoff demons. Allen and Jackson both coming up short brings to mind Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Both were great regular season quarterbacks but when it mattered in the playoffs, they came up short. The Ravens are a one point favorite and I think this game could come down to a one yard run by Jackson or Henry or a field goal by Justin Tucker. I like Buffalo and what Allen has done this year but Baltimore will advance to the AFC Championship.

In conclusion, my picks for next week are:

Philadelphia at Detroit, 3PM, FOX

Baltimore at Kansas City, 6:30PM, CBS